Media Release 24 September 2006
Stats point to Johnson!
The Brownlow Medal count is set to be a cliffhanger, according to the statisticians at Prowess Sports, who rate Western Bulldog Brad Johnson and Saint Nick Dal Santo as the best value betting propositions for tomorrow night's award.
While the glitz turns many viewers into amateur fashion gurus for the night, there are others more interested in the prospect of making a quick buck on the punt.
About $8 million will be bet on the Brownlow Medal. So far, there has been no "leaked email" concerning the winner of football's highest individual award, as there was last year when Swans midfielder Brett Kirk was the subject of an email suggesting he would share the award with eventual winner Ben Cousins. Kirk was backed from $18 into $8 on the strength of the tip but finished with only eight votes.
A more scientific insight has been provided by Prowess, whose game-by-game rankings estimate that Johnson, who is a $13 chance with TAB Sportsbet, and Dal Santo, $21, could poll up to 25 votes. That is more than raging favourite Adam Goodes is calculated to get, with Prowess estimating Goodes will poll between 18 and 23 votes.
Prowess gives each player a match rating after every round, calculated on key performance indicators, and has given The Sunday Age exclusive access to its rankings. From those figures, it has estimated the likely number of votes the main players at tomorrow's count will receive.
Goodes was The Age footballer of the year, and won a host of other media awards this season. According to Prowess, the 2003 joint winner was best-on-ground in a season-high five matches.
Johnson and Crow Simon Goodwin rank No. 1 in four matches, but while Goodes, who ended the season in strong form, may poll in only four or five other matches, Johnson and Goodwin are tipped to poll in at least seven other games. Dal Santo is expected to poll in up to nine games.
TAB Sportsbet's Gary Davies is dubious about whether Goodes should be such a short price at $2.50. "He had a terrific finish to the season, which is why he is favourite, but I wouldn't be taking too short a price about him. He may only have a handful of votes at halfway," he said.
Sportsbet will run betting throughout the night, and Davies says Goodes' odds could be better value midway through the count — although that won't bother the punter who placed $600 on Goodes at $81 before the season started.
There have been no big wagers on Johnson so far but Sportsbet reports hundreds of bets of between $20 and $50 on the Bulldog star. One punter is sitting on a $100 ticket at odds of $201. There has not been a huge amount of interest from punters in Dal Santo.
Second favourite Scott West is widely regarded as having the most consistent season of any player and has been backed into $4. The Bulldogs midfielder is expected to poll in at least nine games, but Prowess had him best on ground in only one match — when West had 40 disposals in the Bulldogs' loss to Collingwood in round nine. The biggest bet in the Sportsbet coffers is on West — $8000 at $7.
Despite figuring prominently in betting, Cousins and Nick Riewoldt are unlikely winners in the Prowess book. Of the outsiders, Geelong's Paul Chapman has come in for support at $251, but Sportsbet's worst result would be if Docker Matthew Pavlich had the Brownlow around his neck. Pavlich was a $71 chance when the season ended but is down to $31 after a flurry of bets.
Alex Lavelle
The Age
Click here to see the original article.
BACK |
